Insurance Risk Dashboard
EIOPA-BoS-25-347
July 2025
The Insurance Risk Dashboard, based on Solvency II data, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the European Union’s insurance sector through a set of risk indicators. The data is based on financial stability and prudential reporting collected from insurance groups and solo insurance undertakings.
July 2025 Insurance Risk Dashboard
The reference date for company data is Q1-2025 for quarterly indicators and 2024-YE for annual indicators. The cut-off date for most market indicators is the end of June 2025. The Level (color) corresponds to the level of risk as of the reference date, the Trend is displayed for the 3 months preceding the reference date and the Outlook is displayed for the 12 months after the reference date. The latter is based on the responses received from 23 national competent authorities (NCAs) and ranked according to the expected change in the materiality of each risk (substantial decrease, decrease, unchanged, increase and substantial increase).
Key Observations
Macro Risks
Macroeconomic risks remain stable at a medium level, but with an increasing outlook. GDP growth projections across major geographical regions slightly decreased to 0.8% (from 1.1%) for the next four quarters and global inflation forecasts slightly decreased to 2.0% (from 2.2%). In parallel, average monetary policy rates across major currencies continued to decline marginally and the contraction of major central banks’ balance sheets continue to slow down in Q2-2025. The weighted average of 10-year swap rates for key currencies slightly decreased relative to the prior quarter (from 2.9% to 2.8% in Q2-2025). Fiscal balances for major economies widened from -3.2% in Q3 2024 to -3.7% in Q4 2024, while the credit-to-GDP gap hover around from -18.3% in Q4-2025. Unemployment rates slightly increased (to 5.6%) based on the most recent data from Q1 2025.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: Refinitiv
Source: BIS
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Credit Risks
Credit risks remain steady at a medium level. As of end of June 2025, credit default swap (CDS) spreads for government and non-financial corporate bonds increased slightly, while spread for financial secured and unsecured somewhat decreased. In Q4 2024, insurers’ median exposures to financial unsecured and to non-financial bonds remained broadly unchanged, while their exposures to government bonds and to financial secured bonds slightly . As of Q4 2024, insurers’ median investment allocations as a share of total assets stood at approximately 26.7% in government bonds, at 1.5% in financial secured bonds and 9.7% in non-financial bonds while it slightly decreased to 9.0% (from 9.5%) in financial unsecured bonds. The indicator on fundamental credit risk in the non-financial corporate sector was unchanged, based on Q4 2024 data. Insurers’ exposure to mortgages and loans remained around 0.3% in Q1-2025 and the household debt-to-income ratio in the Euro area declined slightly to 83.1%, based on Q4 2024 data. Overall, the credit quality of insurers’ investments remains high, with the median credit quality step (CQS) around 2, equivalent to an AA rating from S&P. The median share of low-rated investments (CQS > 3) stood at 1.3% in Q1 2024, with increase in the upper quintile.
Source: Refinitiv, QFG
Source: Refinitiv, QFG
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., QFG
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., QFG
Source: QFG, ECB
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: BIS, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Market Risks
Market risks remain elevated, with upward risk outlook. Bond market volatility decreased compared to previous assessment but remain at high level, and equity volatility was unchanged. Insurers’ median exposure to bonds slightly decreased from 52.3% to 51.2% and equities slightly increased from 5% to 6% of total assets in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, real estate prices improved overall after two years of decline, however this development was particularly driven by residential real estate prices while commercial real estate prices remained still subdued. In terms of exposures, insurers’ median investments to property remains limited overall, with a median of 3% of total assets. Asset concentration measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is stable. The median duration mismatch remained broadly stable from 2023 to 2024 around -5, when considering both the modified duration of assets and liabilities. The median spread of investment return over guaranteed rate did not change between 2023 and 2024.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., QFG
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., QFG
Source: QFG, ECB
Source: ARS
Source: QFG
Source: Assets: QFG, Liabilities: AFG
Liquidity & Funding
Liquidity and funding risks remained at medium level. In Q4 2024, insurers’ median cash holdings remained broadly steady at around 0.7% of total assets, while the median liquid asset ratio decreased from 47% to 45% of total assets. Insurers’ lapse rates kept slightly increasing from 4.7% to 5% in 2024. Even though some entities saw a slight decrease in lapses, overall they remain at high level. The latest annual data indicates an overall positive cash flow position in 2024, measured by the ratio of net cash flows to liquid assets. In the catastrophe bond market, the issuance volumes increased in Q1 2024 and the multiplier (spread/expected annual loss) decreased.
Source: QRS
Source: QRS
Source: QFG
Source: ARS
Source: ARS
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Profitability & solvency
Solvency and profitability risks remain stable at a medium level. In Q1 2025, the median solvency ratios decreased for insurance groups (from 208.5% to 197.8%), and decreased only slightly for non-life (from 213.5% to 211.2%) and for life (from 216.0% to 215.2%). The median of Tier 1 own funds to toal own funds median remained stable, however the distribution widened with some groups seeing a deterioration of the quality of their own funds. In terms of profitability, the median non-life combined ratio improved, decreasing from 97% to 95.5% in Q1-2025, with particular decrease in the lower tail of the distribution. Return on investments for life remained broadly unchanged between 2023 and 2024. Other profitability measures such as the return on assets and return to premiums increased and return on excess of Assets over Liabilities decreased compared to the previous assessment with regards to the median values.
Source: QRS
Source: ARS
Source: QFG
Source: QFG and ARG
Source: QFG and ARG
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QRS
Source: QRS
Source: ARS
Source: QFG
Source: QRS
Interlinkages & imbalances
Interlinkages and imbalances risks remained stable at a medium level. Insurers’ median exposure to banks slighlty decreased from 14.2% to 13.8%, while median exposure to other insurers slightly increased from 1.4% to 1.6% and to other financial activities remained largely unchanged around 22.5% of total assets. Insurers’ median exposure to domestic sovereign debt and derivatives also held steady at around 7.4% and 0.3% of total assets, respectively. The median share of premiums ceded to reinsurers increased from 4.9% to 5.6% in Q1 2025.
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QRS
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Insurance Risks
Insurance risks remain stable at a medium level. Year-on-year premium growth for life slightly decreased to 13.3% (from 14.5% ), while remaining at high level. Year-on-year premium growth for non-life business also slightly decreased to 7.9% (from 8.3%). The median of the loss ratio improved, decreasing from 63.4% to 59.8% in Q1 2025.
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QRS
Market perceptions
Market perceptions remain at a medium level. Life insurance stocks slightly underperformed the market while non-life performed strongly over the last three months. The median price-to-earnings ratio for insurance groups increased in the same period. The distribution of insurers’ CDS spreads slightly decreased from the previous quarter, while there were three positive changes in external rating outlooks for insurance groups in the sample.
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Digitalisation & cyber risks
Digitalization and cyber risks remain at a medium level, with an increasing trend. The materiality of these risks for the insurance sector, as assessed by supervisors, slightly increased in Q2 2025, driven by an increase in the perceived probability of risk materialization. Cyber negative sentiment slightly increased during the same quarter. Global cyber attacks remained braodly unchanged based on the latest data of Q3-2024. In the current geopolitical context, cyber threats are significant concern as insurers are not only exposed to operational risks but also face the growing challenge of underwriting cyber risks, which adds complexity to their risk management strategies.
Source: EIOPA’s Insurance Bottom-up Survey.
Note: Text analysis based indicator, calculated from earning calls
transcripts from listed insurers.
Source: Refinitiv, EIOPA
calculations.
Note: Number of publicly disclosed global cyber attacks over time and
changes.
Source: University of Maryland CISSM Cyber Events Database,
EIOPA calculations.
APPENDIX
Arrows for the Trend show changes for the 3 months preceding the reference date, while arrows for the Outlook show expected developments for the next 12 months.
Macro risks
This category depicts developments in the macro-economic environment that could impact the insurance sector. This category is based on publicly available data on macro variables that may be used for broader macroprudential monitoring and analysis.
Credit risks
The category assesses the vulnerability of the insurance sector towards credit risks. To achieve this aim, credit-relevant asset class exposures of the insurers are combined with the relevant risk metrics applicable to these asset classes.
Market & asset return risks
The risk category depicts the main risks insurers are exposed to on financial markets and the level of asset returns and costs (e.g. administrative, investments and other). For most asset classes these risks are being assessed by analysing both the investment exposure of the insurance sector and an underlying risk metric. The exposures give a picture of the vulnerability of the sector to adverse developments; the risk metric, usually the volatility of the yields of the associated indices, gives a picture of the current level of riskiness.
Liquidity & funding risks
This category aims at assessing the vulnerability of the European insurance industry to liquidity shocks. The set of indicators encompasses the lapse rate of the life insurance sector with high lapse rate signaling a potential risk, holdings of cash & cash equivalents as a measure of the liquidity buffer available, and the issuance of catastrophe bonds, where a very low volume of issuance and/or high spreads signals a reduction in demand which could form a risk.
Profitability & solvency
The category scrutinizes the level of solvency and profitability of the European insurance industry. Both dimensions are analyzed for the overall industry (using group data) and include a breakdown for the life and non-life companies (using solo data). In detail, the solvency level is measured via solvency ratios and quality of own funds. Standard profitability measures for the whole industry are complemented by indicators such as the combined ratio and the return on investments specifically applied to the non-life and life industry respectively.
Interlinkages & imbalances
Under this section various kinds of interlinkages are assessed, both within the insurance sector, namely between primary insurers and reinsurers, between the insurance sector and the banking sector, as well as interlinkages created via derivative holdings. Exposure towards domestic sovereign debt is included as well.
Insurance (underwriting) risks
As indicators for insurance risks gross written premiums of both life and non-life business are an important input. Both significant expansion and contraction are taken as indicators of risks in the sector; the former due to concerns over sustainability and the latter as an indicator of widespread contraction of insurance markets.
Market perceptions
This category encompasses the financial markets’ perception of the healthiness and profitability of the European insurance sector. For this purpose, relative stock market performances of European insurance indices against the total market are assessed, as well as fundamental valuations of insurance stocks (price/earnings ratio), CDS spreads and external ratings/rating outlooks.
Digitalisation & cyber risks
This risk category aims to capture potential financial stability
risks related to an increased digitalisation, which exposes the
insurance sector to risks both from an operational resilience
perspective (as insurers themselves can be targets of cyber-attacks) and
from an underwriting perspective (related to the provision of cyber
insurance products). The set of indicators encompasses the supervisors’
assessment of digitalization & cyber risks considering different
aspects such as cyber security risks, cyber underwriting risks and
Insurtech competition, the year-on–year change in the frequency of cyber
incidents as reported in the Hackmageddon.com database and, finally, the
negative sentiment of European insurers against cyber risk. This section
will be further developed as new data becomes available.
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