Insurance Risk Dashboard
EIOPA-BoS-26-359
July 2026
The Insurance Risk Dashboard, based on Solvency II data, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the European Union’s insurance sector through a set of risk indicators. The data is based on financial stability and prudential reporting collected from insurance groups and solo insurance undertakings.
July 2026 Insurance Risk Dashboard
The reference date for company data is Q1-2026 for quarterly indicators and 2025-YE for annual indicators. The cut-off date for most market indicators is the end of June 2026. The Level (color) corresponds to the level of risk as of the reference date, the Trend is displayed for the 3 months preceding the reference date and the Outlook is displayed for the 12 months after the reference date. The latter is based on the responses received from 23 national competent authorities (NCAs) and ranked according to the expected change in the materiality of each risk (substantial decrease, decrease, unchanged, increase and substantial increase).
Key Observations
Macro Risks
Macroeconomic risks remain stable at a medium level, with an increasing outlook. GDP growth projections across major geographical regions decreased from 1.3% to 1% over the next four quarters, while global inflation forecasts increased from 2.3% to 2.9%. The weighted average of 10-year swap rates for key currencies stayed around 3.2%. In parallel, policy rates increased to 3% in Q2 2026 from 2% in Q1 2026 mainly as a response to renewed inflationary pressures. The latest available data on fiscal balances for major economies point to -3.5% of GDP in Q4 2025, while the credit-to-GDP gap narrowed slightly to -17.6% in Q4 2025. Unemployment rates hovered around 5.7%, based on the most recent data from Q1 2026. In early July, heightened geopolitical risk added downside risks to confidence and activity, while potentially increasing inflationary pressures through higher energy and transport costs.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: Refinitiv
Source: BIS
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Credit Risks
Credit risks remain steady at a medium level, with a stable outlook. As of the end of June 2026, overall credit default swap (CDS) spreads had decreased. In Q1 2026, insurers’ median exposures to government and financial bonds remain broadly unchanged, while their median exposure to non-financial bonds decreased. As of Q1 2026, insurers’ median investment allocations as a share of total assets stood at approximately 26.2% in government bonds, 1.3% in secured financial bonds and 9.2% in unsecured financial bonds, while the share invested in non-financial bonds decreased from 10.4% to 8.6%. The indicator of fundamental credit risk in the non-financial corporate sector was broadly unchanged. Insurers’ exposure to mortgages and loans remains at around 0.3%, and the household debt-to-income ratio in the euro area remains unchanged at 82.4%, based on Q4 2025 data. Overall, the average credit quality of insurers’ investments remains high, with the median credit quality step (CQS) at around 2, equivalent to an AA rating from S&P. The median share of low-rated investments (CQS > 3) stood at around 1.3% in Q1 2026.Going forward, debt financing costs and private credit quality remain under monitoring, as higher borrowing costs could increase default risk for highly leveraged entities, while publicly observed credit spreads may not fully capture emerging risks in private credit markets.
Source: Refinitiv, QFG
Source: Refinitiv, QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QFG, ECB
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: BIS
Market Risks
Market risks followed a slight easing trend between end-March and end-June, while the outlook points to an increase. By end-June, bond market volatility eased compared with the previous assessment, as did equity volatility, while the price-to-book ratio remain unchanged. Insurers’ median exposure to bonds stood at 49.7% of total assets, while their median exposure to equities was 6% in Q1 2026. Residential property prices decreased according to the latest data (Q4 2025) while insurers’ median investment in property continue to be limited overall, at 2.9% of total assets in Q1 2026. The median spread of investment returns over guaranteed interest rates decreased, while the duration mismatch was unchanged at the end of 2025. Asset concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, remains stable. In the first half of July, financial conditions have become more sensitive to geopolitical developments, with volatility rising especially in commodity market. Looking ahead, supervisors remain concerned about the risk of a broader correction amid high valuations and persistent uncertainty. Further, it remains to be seen if a reassessment of risk premia will occur due to renewed geopolitical tensions.
Source: QFG
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., QFG
Source: QFG, ECB
Source: ARS
Source: QFG
Source: Assets: QFG, Liabilities: AFG
Liquidity & Funding
Liquidity and funding risks remain at a medium level. In Q1 2026, insurers’ median cash holdings were around 0.8% of total assets, while the median share of liquid assets remains unchanged at 45% of total assets. Bond issuance volumes were approximately three times higher in Q2-2026 than in the previous quarter reflecting mostly high sovereign financing needs, refinancing activity and continued favourable access to capital markets. In the catastrophe bond market, issuance volumes in Q1 2026 were broadly in line with those in Q1 2025. All other annual indicators remain broadly unchanged.
Source: QRS
Source: QRS
Source: QFG
Source: ARS
Source: ARS
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Profitability & solvency
Solvency and profitability risks remain stable at a medium level. In Q1 2026, the median solvency ratio decreased for insurance groups to 210%, while it remains broadly stable for life insurers at 247% and non-life insurers at 218%. The median ratio of Tier 1 own funds to total own funds remains at around 86%. In terms of profitability, the median non-life combined ratio deteriorated slightly to 95.4%, while the asset-to-liability ratio slightly increased in Q1 2026. The return on excess of assets over liabilities slightly decreased, while the return on assets and the return on premiums marginally increased, based on the latest available data.
Source: QRS
Source: ARS
Source: QFG
Source: QFG and ARG
Source: QFG and ARG
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QRS
Source: QRS
Source: ARS
Source: QFG
Source: QRS
Interlinkages & imbalances
Interlinkages and imbalances risks remain stable at a medium level. Insurers’ median exposure to banks slightly went down to 13.5% while the median exposure to other financial activities stood at 22.4% of total assets. The median exposure to other insurers dropped at 1.4% in Q1 2026 compared to the end of 2025. Insurers’ median exposure to domestic sovereign debt and derivatives also remain steady at around 7.2% and 0.2% of total assets, respectively. The median share of premiums ceded to reinsurers increased to 5.8% in Q1 2026.
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QRS
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Insurance Risks
Insurance risks remain at a medium level. Year-on-year premium growth for life business remains strong at around 6.3%, which is associated with a lower level of risk. However, the 25th percentile of the distribution became negative since Q3 2023. Year-on-year median premium growth for non-life business was 4.2%, while the lower tail of the distribution also extended downward. The median loss ratio decreased to slightly below 60%, but the 90th percentile, which is not shown in the chart, increased in Q1 2026, suggesting that a subset of insurers have seen a deterioration in their underwriting performance. Uncertainty stemming from potential claims related to war and trade-related coverages remains.
Source: QFG
Source: QFG
Source: QRS
Market perceptions
Market perceptions remain at a medium level. While life and non-life insurance returns were lower than the market between end March and end July, insurers’ indices have been performing positively overall. The median price-to-earnings ratio increased slightly over the same period. The distribution of insurers’ CDS spreads decreased, while there were three positive changes in external rating outlooks for the insurance groups in the sample.
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Refinitiv
Digitalisation & cyber risks
Digitalisation and cyber risks increased to a high level, based on supervisory assessments. The materiality of these risks for the insurance sector, as assessed by supervisors, increased in Q2 2026. The latest data on global cyberattacks also showed an increase in the number of attacks in Q1 2026. In the current geopolitical context, cyber threats remain a significant concern, as insurers are not only exposed to operational risks but also face the growing challenge of underwriting cyber risks, which adds complexity to their risk-management strategies. Supervisors warn on systemic cyber risks posed by frontier AI model and urge financial entities to make the appropriate arrangements to adapt their cybersecurity capabilities also in line with requirements of DORA.
Source: EIOPA’s Insurance Bottom-up Survey.
Note: Text analysis based indicator, calculated from earning calls
transcripts from listed insurers.
Source: Refinitiv, EIOPA
calculations.
Note: Number of publicly disclosed global cyber attacks over time and
changes.
Source: University of Maryland CISSM Cyber Events Database,
EIOPA calculations.
APPENDIX
Arrows for the Trend show changes for the 3 months preceding the reference date, while arrows for the Outlook show expected developments for the next 12 months.
Macro risks
This category depicts developments in the macro-economic environment that could impact the insurance sector. This category is based on publicly available data on macro variables that may be used for broader macroprudential monitoring and analysis.
Credit risks
The category assesses the vulnerability of the insurance sector towards credit risks. To achieve this aim, credit-relevant asset class exposures of the insurers are combined with the relevant risk metrics applicable to these asset classes.
Market & asset return risks
The risk category depicts the main risks insurers are exposed to on financial markets and the level of asset returns and costs (e.g. administrative, investments and other). For most asset classes these risks are being assessed by analysing both the investment exposure of the insurance sector and an underlying risk metric. The exposures give a picture of the vulnerability of the sector to adverse developments; the risk metric, usually the volatility of the yields of the associated indices, gives a picture of the current level of riskiness.
Liquidity & funding risks
This category aims at assessing the vulnerability of the European insurance industry to liquidity shocks. The set of indicators encompasses the lapse rate of the life insurance sector with high lapse rate signaling a potential risk, holdings of cash & cash equivalents as a measure of the liquidity buffer available, and the issuance of catastrophe bonds, where a very low volume of issuance and/or high spreads signals a reduction in demand which could form a risk.
Profitability & solvency
The category scrutinizes the level of solvency and profitability of the European insurance industry. Both dimensions are analyzed for the overall industry (using group data) and include a breakdown for the life and non-life companies (using solo data). In detail, the solvency level is measured via solvency ratios and quality of own funds. Standard profitability measures for the whole industry are complemented by indicators such as the combined ratio and the return on investments specifically applied to the non-life and life industry respectively.
Interlinkages & imbalances
Under this section various kinds of interlinkages are assessed, both within the insurance sector, namely between primary insurers and reinsurers, between the insurance sector and the banking sector, as well as interlinkages created via derivative holdings. Exposure towards domestic sovereign debt is included as well.
Insurance (underwriting) risks
As indicators for insurance risks gross written premiums of both life and non-life business are an important input. Both significant expansion and contraction are taken as indicators of risks in the sector; the former due to concerns over sustainability and the latter as an indicator of widespread contraction of insurance markets.
Market perceptions
This category encompasses the financial markets’ perception of the healthiness and profitability of the European insurance sector. For this purpose, relative stock market performances of European insurance indices against the total market are assessed, as well as fundamental valuations of insurance stocks (price/earnings ratio), CDS spreads and external ratings/rating outlooks.
Digitalisation & cyber risks
This risk category aims to capture potential financial stability
risks related to an increased digitalisation, which exposes the
insurance sector to risks both from an operational resilience
perspective (as insurers themselves can be targets of cyber-attacks) and
from an underwriting perspective (related to the provision of cyber
insurance products). The set of indicators encompasses the supervisors’
assessment of digitalization & cyber risks considering different
aspects such as cyber security risks, cyber underwriting risks and
Insurtech competition, the year-on–year change in the frequency of cyber
incidents as reported in the Hackmageddon.com database and, finally, the
negative sentiment of European insurers against cyber risk. This section
will be further developed as new data becomes available.
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