Insurance Risk Dashboard

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The Insurance Risk Dashboard, based on Solvency II data, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the European Union’s insurance sector through a set of risk indicators. The data is based on financial stability and prudential reporting collected from insurance groups and solo insurance undertakings.

January 2026 Insurance Risk Dashboard

The reference date for company data is Q3-2025 for quarterly indicators and 2024-YE for annual indicators. The cut-off date for most market indicators is the end of December 2025. The Level (color) corresponds to the level of risk as of the reference date, the Trend is displayed for the 3 months preceding the reference date and the Outlook is displayed for the 12 months after the reference date. The latter is based on the responses received from 23 national competent authorities (NCAs) and ranked according to the expected change in the materiality of each risk (substantial decrease, decrease, unchanged, increase and substantial increase).

Key Observations

Macro Risks

Macroeconomic risks remain stable at a medium level, with increasing outlook. GDP growth projections across major geographical regions slightly increased to 1.3% (from 1.1%) for the next four quarters and global inflation forecasts are around 2%. In parallel, monetary policy remained broadly stable in Q4-2025. The weighted average of 10-year swap rates for key currencies slightly increased relative to the prior quarter (from 2.9% to 3.1% in Q4-2025). Fiscal balances for major economies hover around -3.4% in Q2 2025, while the credit-to-GDP gap slightly widened to -18.6% in Q1-2025. Unemployment rates hover around 5.7% based on the most recent data from Q3 2025. Additional sources of concern are piling up in the geopolitical picture. The recent events related to Venezuela did not fuel some abrupt disruption in equity or bond markets. Regarding oil prices, the initial reaction to Venezuela’s situation was an increase in prices in the tune of >1% (e.g., reflecting expectations for short-term disruptions). From a longer-term perspective a potential increased output from Venezuela would push prices lower. Persistent geopolitical instability, with tensions emerging in Venezuela, Iran and, increasingly Greenland, further increase uncertainty. Together, these developments suggest an upward revision of the macro-risk outlook.

Note: Average of forecasts four quarters ahead, weighted average for Euro area, United Kingdom, Switzerland, United States, BRICS.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Note: Weighted average for EU, UK, Switzerland, United States, China.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Weighted average for EU, UK and United States.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Average of forecasts four quarters ahead, weighted average for Euro area, United Kingdom, Switzerland, United States, BRICS.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Note: Weighted average for EUR, GBP, CHF, USD.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Weighted average for Euro area, United Kingdom, Switzerland, United States, China.
Source: BIS

Note: Weighted average for Euro area, United Kingdom, Switzerland, United States.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Credit Risks

Credit risks remain steady at a medium level, foreseen increase in public spending in defense and infrastructure. As of end of December 2025, credit default swap (CDS) spreads decreased sightly. In Q3 2025, insurers’ median exposures to government and financial bonds remained broadly unchanged, while their exposures to non-financial bonds decreased. As of Q3 2025, insurers’ median investment allocations as a share of total assets stood at approximately 26.3% in government bonds, at 1.3% in financial secured bonds and sightly decreased to 8.3% in financial unsecured bonds and decreased to 8.7% from 10.4% in non-financial bonds. The indicator on fundamental credit risk in the non-financial corporate sector was broadly unchanged. Insurers’ exposure to mortgages and loans remained around 0.3% in Q3-2025 and the household debt-to-income ratio in the Euro area declined slightly to 82.7%, based on Q1 2025 data. Overall, the credit quality of insurers’ investments remains high, with the median credit quality step (CQS) around 2, equivalent to an AA rating from S&P. The median share of low-rated investments (CQS > 3) was around at 1.3% in Q3 2025.

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure.
Source: Refinitiv, QFG

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure.
Source: Refinitiv, QFG

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures (inter-quartile range and median)
Source: QFG

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures (inter-quartile range and median)
Source: QFG

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure.
Source: QFG, ECB

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Includes both internal and external credit ratings.
Source: QFG

Note: Spread of non-financial corporate bonds based on a 12-quarter rolling window.
Source: BIS

Market Risks

Market risks remain elevated. Risk related to the potential AI bubble might boost volatility without necessarily default concerns significantly increasing. Bond market volatility slightly increased compared to previous assessment, remaining at a level that still requires attention, and equity volatility slightly decreased however price to book ratio increased. Insurers’ median exposure to bonds are at 51.5% and to equities at 6% of total assets in Q3 2025. Residential property prices kept increasing according to latest data. Insurers’ median investments to property remains limited overall, with a median of 3% of total assets in Q2-2025. Asset concentration measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is stable.

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures (inter-quartile range and median)
Source: QFG

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., QFG

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure. The growth of real estate prices is based on a weighted average of commercial and residential real estate prices.
Source: QFG, ECB

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). The numerator of the investment return ratio excludes Solvency II reported unrealised gains and losses.
Source: ARS

Note: Herfindahl Hirschman index computed on six balance sheet asset classes (government bonds, corporate bonds, equities, property, cash and cash equivalents and loans and mortgages). Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). EIOPA calculates the indicator based on the modified duration of the assets and the liabilities.
Source: Assets: QFG, Liabilities: AFG

Liquidity & Funding

Liquidity and funding risks remained at medium level with increasing trend. In Q3 2025, insurers’ median cash holdings remained at 0.8% of total assets and the median liquid asset was unchanged at 46% of total assets. In the catastrophe bond market, the issuance volumes were low for Q3 2025 but slightly higher compared to the previous year and the multiplier (spread/expected annual loss) decreased. All other annual indicators remained unchanged.

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QRS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QRS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: ARS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: ARS

Note: Volume in EUR mn.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Note: Volumes in USD mn, spread in per cent.
Source: http://artemis.bm

Profitability & solvency

Solvency and profitability risks remain stable at a medium level. In Q3 2025, the median solvency ratios slightly increased for insurance groups (to 202.6%), for life (to 238.4%) and for non-life (to 216.8%). The median of Tier 1 own funds to total own funds median slightly decreased from 87.1% to 86.1%. In terms of profitability, the median non-life combined ratio remained broadly unchaged around 94.8% in Q3-2025. Other profitability measures remained unchanged.

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QRS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). The indicator excludes unrealised gains and losses. For information purposes, the median is also shown with the inclusion of unrealised gains and losses.
Source: ARS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Q2 figures annualised.
Source: QFG and ARG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Q2 figures annualized.
Source: QFG and ARG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QRS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QRS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: ARS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Starting from 2023 and following the adoption of the new taxonomy, the frequency of the indicator will be annual.
Source: QRS

Interlinkages & imbalances

Interlinkages and imbalances risks remained stable at a medium level. Insurers’ median exposure to banks remained at 14.1% , to other financial activities at 23.1% of total assets, and to other insurers at 1.6% . Insurers’ median exposure to domestic sovereign debt and derivatives also held steady at around 7.4% and 0.3% of total assets, respectively. The median share of premiums ceded to reinsurers was unchanged at 5.1% in Q3 2025.

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Banks comprise all activities identified with NACE code K.64.1.9.
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Insurances comprise all activities identified with NACE code K65, excluding K65.3.
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Other financial institutions comprise all activities identified with NACE codes K66, K65.3 and K64 excluding K64.1.9.
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QRS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Derivatives holdings are calculated as the total value of derivatives from the balance sheet (i.e. both asset and liability values in absolute terms).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Insurance Risks

Insurance risks is at medium level, but we decreasing trend driven by positive premium growth and low loss ratio. Year-on-year premium growth for life was strong at 6.2%, which is associated with a lower level of risks. Year-on-year premium growth for non-life business also remained strong at 5.4%. The median of the loss ratio was at 61% in Q3 2025. Uncertainty stemming from potential claims against war and trade related coverages

Note: Year-on-year change in gross written premiums. Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Year-on-year change in gross written premiums. Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QFG

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: QRS

Market perceptions

Market perceptions remain at a medium level. Life and non-life insurance stocks underperformed the market over the last three months. The median price-to-earnings ratio for insurance groups slightly increased in the same period. The distribution of insurers’ CDS spreads remained broadly stable, while there were four positive changes in external rating outlooks for insurance groups in the sample.

Note: Out-(under-)performance over 3-month periods vs Stoxx 600.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: Refinitiv

Source: Standard & Poor’s via Refinitiv

Source: Standard & Poor’s via Refinitiv.

ESG Related Risks

ESG-related risks remain stable at a medium level, with decreasing trend. In Q3 2025, the insurers investments in green bonds over total green bond outstanding slightly increased to 7.6%. The median exposure to climate-relevant assets slightly decreased (from 3.6% to 3.3% of total assets).The other indicators on ESG rating score and on physical risks remained unchanged compared to the previous assessment.

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Higher rating scores correspond to better ratings.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Higher rating scores correspond to better ratings.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Higher rating scores correspond to better ratings.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median). Higher rating scores correspond to better ratings.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Numbers of positive (light blue bar) and negative (dark blue bar) changes.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: Refinitiv, QRS

Note: Distribution of indicator (interquartile range, median).
Source: Refinitiv, QRS

Source: EIOPA new dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes, Eurostat, Litpop, ARG.

Source: EIOPA new dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes, Eurostat, Litpop, ARG.

Note: The six climate-relevant sectors (agriculture, fossil fuel, utilities, energy-intensive, transport and housing) are based on their greenhouse gas emissions and mapped at NACE Rev2 4-digit level. Due to data limitations, there are assets which cannot be entirely included in the “climate relevant” category and therefore they are currently excluded from the calculation of the indicator leading to a potential underestimation of the risk.
Source: QRS

Digitalisation & cyber risks

Digitalization and cyber risks remain at a medium level. The materiality of these risks for the insurance sector, as assessed by supervisors, remain elevated in Q4 2025. Cyber negative sentiment and global cyber attacks indicators decreased at the end of 2025. In the current geopolitical context, cyber threats remain significant concern as insurers are not only exposed to operational risks but also face the growing challenge of underwriting cyber risks, which adds complexity to their risk management strategies.

Note: Scores compiled based on the assessment of probability and impact (lhs: scale from 1 to 4) of digitalisation & cyber risks from National Competent Authorities. The country average for each answer is then normalised (rhs: scale 0-100).
Source: EIOPA’s Insurance Bottom-up Survey.

Note: Text analysis based indicator, calculated from earning calls transcripts from listed insurers.
Source: Refinitiv, EIOPA calculations.

Note: Number of publicly disclosed global cyber attacks over time and changes.
Source: University of Maryland CISSM Cyber Events Database, EIOPA calculations.

APPENDIX

Arrows for the Trend show changes for the 3 months preceding the reference date, while arrows for the Outlook show expected developments for the next 12 months.

Description of risk categories

Macro risks

This category depicts developments in the macro-economic environment that could impact the insurance sector. This category is based on publicly available data on macro variables that may be used for broader macroprudential monitoring and analysis.

Credit risks

The category assesses the vulnerability of the insurance sector towards credit risks. To achieve this aim, credit-relevant asset class exposures of the insurers are combined with the relevant risk metrics applicable to these asset classes.

Market & asset return risks

The risk category depicts the main risks insurers are exposed to on financial markets and the level of asset returns and costs (e.g. administrative, investments and other). For most asset classes these risks are being assessed by analysing both the investment exposure of the insurance sector and an underlying risk metric. The exposures give a picture of the vulnerability of the sector to adverse developments; the risk metric, usually the volatility of the yields of the associated indices, gives a picture of the current level of riskiness.

Liquidity & funding risks

This category aims at assessing the vulnerability of the European insurance industry to liquidity shocks. The set of indicators encompasses the lapse rate of the life insurance sector with high lapse rate signaling a potential risk, holdings of cash & cash equivalents as a measure of the liquidity buffer available, and the issuance of catastrophe bonds, where a very low volume of issuance and/or high spreads signals a reduction in demand which could form a risk.

Profitability & solvency

The category scrutinizes the level of solvency and profitability of the European insurance industry. Both dimensions are analyzed for the overall industry (using group data) and include a breakdown for the life and non-life companies (using solo data). In detail, the solvency level is measured via solvency ratios and quality of own funds. Standard profitability measures for the whole industry are complemented by indicators such as the combined ratio and the return on investments specifically applied to the non-life and life industry respectively.

Interlinkages & imbalances

Under this section various kinds of interlinkages are assessed, both within the insurance sector, namely between primary insurers and reinsurers, between the insurance sector and the banking sector, as well as interlinkages created via derivative holdings. Exposure towards domestic sovereign debt is included as well.

Insurance (underwriting) risks

As indicators for insurance risks gross written premiums of both life and non-life business are an important input. Both significant expansion and contraction are taken as indicators of risks in the sector; the former due to concerns over sustainability and the latter as an indicator of widespread contraction of insurance markets.

Market perceptions

This category encompasses the financial markets’ perception of the healthiness and profitability of the European insurance sector. For this purpose, relative stock market performances of European insurance indices against the total market are assessed, as well as fundamental valuations of insurance stocks (price/earnings ratio), CDS spreads and external ratings/rating outlooks.

Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) related risks

This risk category aims at assessing the vulnerability of the European insurance industry to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) risks but also to capture these kinds of risks that may emerge and rise in the near future. The set of indicators encompasses ESG ratings of listed insurers signaling low insurers’ attention to ESG factors and hence could increase their reputational and operational risk, the share of green bonds in insurers’ portfolios and share of climate relevant assets based on their greenhouse gas emissions as a measure of exposure towards transition risk, exposure at risk of Nat Cat events, economic damage caused by weather and climate-related extreme events and catastrophe loss ratio as a flag for potential physical risk. Information on claims and insurance losses due to natural catastrophes also contribute to this risk category.

Digitalisation & cyber risks

This risk category aims to capture potential financial stability risks related to an increased digitalisation, which exposes the insurance sector to risks both from an operational resilience perspective (as insurers themselves can be targets of cyber-attacks) and from an underwriting perspective (related to the provision of cyber insurance products). The set of indicators encompasses the supervisors’ assessment of digitalization & cyber risks considering different aspects such as cyber security risks, cyber underwriting risks and Insurtech competition, the year-on–year change in the frequency of cyber incidents as reported in the Hackmageddon.com database and, finally, the negative sentiment of European insurers against cyber risk. This section will be further developed as new data becomes available.

 

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