Loading...


This risk dashboard, based on individual occupational pensions regulatory reporting, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the European Economic Area (EEA) Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) sector for the different schemes, i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB), through a set of risk indicators. It should be noted that depending on the characteristics of the pension scheme, risks might not ultimately be borne by the IORPs themselves but by their members and beneficiaries or their sponsors.

The risk dashboard shows for each risk indicator the distribution of the individual reported data over time together with the weighted average, capturing the relative importance of the different entities for the sector. For specific indicators, this information is complemented by relevant data from external sources.


2025 October IORP Risk Dashboard

The reference date for IORP data is Q2-2025 for quarterly indicators and 2024-YE for annual indicators. The cut-off date for indicators based on data from external sources is end-September 2025. The Level (colour) corresponds to the level of risk as of the reference date, the Trend is displayed for the 3 months preceding the reference date and the Outlook is displayed for the 12 months after the reference date. The latter is based on the responses received from 20 national competent authorities (NCAs) and ranked according to the expected change in the materiality of each risk (substantial decrease, decrease, unchanged, increase and substantial increase). More details can be found in the appendix.




Key Observations





Macro risks

Macro-related risks are at a medium level. GDP growth projections (across major geographical regions) for the next four quarters were revised upward to 1.3% in the third quarter of 2025 (1.0% in the previous quarter), while forecasted inflation remained broadly unchanged at around 2.3% in the same quarter. Unemployment rates (weighted average across major geographical areas) slightly increased to 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025 (5.1% in the previous quarter), whereas the euro area wage growth reversed the declining trend since early 2024, reaching 3.6% in the same quarter (3.4% in the previous quarter). The weighted average of the 10-year swap rates for major currencies remained broadly stable in recent quarters, standing at 2.9% in the third quarter of 2025.



Note: Average of forecasts four quarters ahead, weighted average for Euro area, United Kingdom, Switzerland, United States and BRICS based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Source: Eurostat, Euro Area Labour Cost Index (LCI)

Note: Weighted average for EU, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States and China based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures.
Source: Refinitiv and Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK

Note: Weighted average for EUR, GBP, CHF and USD based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures.
Source: Refinitiv

Note: Average of forecasts four quarters ahead, weighted average for Euro area, United Kingdom, Switzerland, United States and BRICS based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Credit risks

Credit risks remain at a medium level with credit default swaps (CDS) spreads for government and corporate bonds showing a modest tightening at end-September compared to end-June 2025. The median exposure of IORPs towards sovereigns (excluding exposures via collective investment undertakings) as a share of total assets stayed broadly steady at around 14.4%, while for corporate bonds slightly decreased to 1.7% in the second quarter of 2025 (2.1% in the previous quarter). IORPs’ investments in loans and mortgages are limited, with the household debt-to-income ratio for the euro area continued decreasing by around 0.5 p.p. to 82.7% based on the latest available data (Q1-2025). The correlation between the debt-service ratio of non-financial corporations and non-financial corporate bond spreads, aimed at capturing potential credit risk mispricing, became more negative in the first quarter of 2025. In terms of credit quality, the median average CQS of IORPs’ investments was 1.6 in the second quarter of 2025, corresponding to an S&P rating between AA and A. The median exposure of IORPs to below investment grade assets (with a CQS higher than 3) is low (0% of total assets), though when considering the weighted average for the sector the figure increases (5.7%), indicating higher exposures for larger IORPs.



Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures excl. collective investment undertakings (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and Bloomberg

Note: The indicator includes exposures via collective investment undertakings, i.e. look-through is applied.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The indicator excludes collective investment undertakings.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The indicator includes exposures via collective investment undertakings, i.e. look-through is applied.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures excl. collective investment undertakings (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure for Euro Area. This indicator is only relevant for some jurisdictions
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and ECB

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Weighted average of the debt-service ratio of non-financial corporations (NFCs) for Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures. Correlation between the debt-service ratio of NFCs and the credit spread of NFCs bonds based on a 12-quarter rolling window
Source: BIS database for debt service ratios for the private non-financial sector

Market & asset return risks

Market and asset return risks decreased to medium level, with volatily in the bond and equity markets receding at end-September 2025 compared at end-June. In terms of investments, the median exposure to bonds as a share of total assets (including exposures to collective investment undertakings (CIUs) investing in bonds) slightly dropped to 53.8% in the second quarter of 2025 (55.2% in the previous quarter), while for equity is largely unchanged standing at 24.9%. The median exposure of IORPs towards assets denominated in foreign currency seem to be higher for larger IORPs, with the median exposure at 0.8% of total assets and the weighted average at 26.9% in the second quarter of 2025. The median duration of IORPs’ assets is overall stable standing slightly above 5 years (weighted average for the sector around 7 years). In terms of asset return risks, IORPs’ portfolio performance, measured as investment income including unrealised gains and losses as a share of total assets, was positive reaching 6.6% in 2024 (8.0% in 2023).



Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures incl. collective investment undertakings investing in equity (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and Bloomberg

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures incl. collective investment undertakings investing in bonds (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Left scale shows the distribution of exposures incl. collective investment undertakings investing in real estate (inter-quartile range and median), right scale the risk measure. The growth of real estate prices is calculated as a weighted average of commercial and residential real estate prices based on EEA IORPs’ investment exposures
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and ECB

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The indicator is calculated based on the residual modified duration of assets
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The indicator is calculated based on reported investment income including unrealised gains and losses
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Tax expenses are excluded
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Liquidity risks

Liquidity risks are at medium level with a decreasing trend driven by the developments in the IORPs’ derivative positions. The median average of the net market value of IORPs’ derivatives shifted upwards, remaining below zero at -0.4% in the second quarter of 2025 (-1.1% in the previous quarter), while the weighted average grew slightly more negative, reaching -3.3% in the second quarter of 2025 (-3.1% in the previous quarter). This indicator and cash holdings tend to mirror each other and therefore, grossly, balance out, in particular for the largest IORPs. The median value of the liquid assets ratio remained largely unchanged at 51.6% in the second quarter of 2025.



Note: The indicator is based on a weighting and bucketing of asset classes according to their liquidity
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Net market value of derivatives as a share of total assets
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The existence of negative cash holdings can result from collateral positions that are reported as negative assets
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Reserve & funding risks

Reserve & funding risks for defined benefit (DB) schemes are at medium level with a strengthening of the financial positions of Defined Benefit (DB) IORPs in the second quarter of 2025. The median excess of assets over liabilities continued increasing in the second quarter of 2025, standing at 22.8% (19.9% in the previous quarter). Similarly, the median funding ratio, calculated as assets over technical provisions raised to 123.7% (121.1% in the previous quarter). The median of life expectancy for both newborn persons and 65 year old persons in the EEA increased in 2024, standing at 82 and 20.



Note: The indicator is calculated as excess of assets over liabilities as a share of liabilities
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Indicator is calculated based on the annual latest available expectancy at birth for all EEA countries
Source: Eurostat

Note: Indicator is calculated based on the annual latest available remaining life expectancy for a 65 years old person for all EEA countries
Source: Eurostat

Concentration risks

Concentration risks are at medium level. IORPs’ median (direct) exposure to banks remained limited below 1% in the second quarter of 2025. Similarly, exposures to other financial institutions (other than banking) stayed below 1%. The weighted averages for both indicators stayed at 5.5% and 5.5%, respectively, in the same quarter, pointing to higher exposures for larger IORPs. IORPs’ exposures to domestic sovereign debt slightly decreased to 1.4% of total assets in the second quarter of 2025 (1.7% in the previous quarter), while the weighted average remained largely unchanged at 4.8%. The portfolio concentration per asset class, sector and country, measured by the Herfindahl Hirschman index, remained broadly unchanged compared to the previous quarter. These measures are calculated excluding investments via collective investment undertakings (CIUs), therefore showing high levels of concentration for those IORPs investing mainly via this asset class.



Note: Banks comprise all activities identified with NACE code K64.1.9. The numerator excludes collective investment undertakings
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Other financial institutions comprise all activities identified with NACE codes K64 (excl. K64.1.9.), K65 and K66. The numerator excludes collective investment undertakings. As of April 2025, figures have been revised following a methodological review.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: The numerator excludes collective investment undertakings
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Herfindahl Hirschman index computed on six balance sheet asset classes (government bonds, corporate bonds, equities, property, cash and cash equivalents and loans and mortgages). Collective investment undertakings (CIUs) are excluded. The indicator includes small IORPs investing mainly via CIUs and thus with a high level of concentration
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Herfindahl Hirschman index computed on issuer sector excluding collective investment undertakings (CIUs), cash and deposits and property. The indicator includes small IORPs investing mainly via CIUs and thus with a high level of concentration
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Note: Herfindahl Hirschman index computed on issuer country excluding collective investment undertakings (CIUs), cash and deposits, mortgages and loans and property. The indicator includes small IORPs investing mainly via CIUs and thus with a high level of concentration
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting

Digitalisation & cyber risks

Digitalisation and cyber risks are at medium level. The materiality of these risks for IORPs, as assessed by supervisors, remained high, shifting upwards in the second quarter of 2025 amid continued concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions and related uncertainty.



Note: Scores compiled based on the assessment of probability and impact (lhs: scale from 1 to 4) of digitalisation & cyber risks from National Competent Authorities. The average for each answer across countries is then normalised (rhs: scale from 0 to 100)
Source: EIOPA’s Pension Bottom-up Survey

APPENDIX





Arrows for the Trend show changes for the 3 months preceding the reference date, while arrows for the Outlook show expected developments for the next 12 months.

Description of risk categories

Macro risks

This category depicts developments in the macro-economic environment that could impact the IORP sector. This category is based on publicly available data on macro variables that may be used for broader macroprudential monitoring and analysis.

Credit risks

The category assesses the vulnerability of the IORP sector towards credit risks. To achieve this aim, credit-relevant asset class exposures of the IORPs are combined with the relevant risk metrics applicable to these asset classes.

Market & asset return risks

The risk category depicts the main risks IORPs are exposed to on financial markets and the level of asset returns and costs (e.g. administrative, investments and other). For most asset classes these risks are being assessed by analysing both the investment exposure of the IORP sector and an underlying risk metric. The exposures give a picture of the vulnerability of the sector to adverse developments; the risk metric, usually the volatility of the yields of the associated indices, gives a picture of the current level of riskiness.

Liquidity risks

Liquidity risk can be defined as the risk that an institution will not be able to meet its payment obligations timely or without generating excessive cost.

Reserve & funding risks

This category aims to assess the level of the own funds of IORPs and the robustness of its technical provisions. This risk category is only relevant for IORPs executing defined benefit pension schemes (DB).

Concentration risks

This section assesses different concentration risks IORPs are exposed to via their portfolio investments. It depicts various concentration types.

Digitalisation & cyber risks

The category aims at monitoring potential financial stability risks related to an increased digitalisation, which exposes the IORP sector to risks from a digital operational resilience perspective (i.e. cyber security risks).


  1. Due to limited data availability, only environmental risks are currently considered in the category. As more data will be available, social and governance risks should be also considered.↩︎

 

Handling instructions for documents with security markings:

https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/publications/other_documents/summary_eiopa_information.pdf

EIOPA | Westhafen Tower, Westhafenplatz 1 | 60327 Frankfurt | Germany

Tel: +49 69-951119-20

info@eiopa.europa.eu | https://www.eiopa.europa.eu

Linkedin Twitter Facebook YouTube