Institutions for occupational retirement
provision (IORPs)
Risk Dashboard
EIOPA-BoS-26-009
January 2026
This risk dashboard, based on individual occupational pensions regulatory reporting, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the European Economic Area (EEA) Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) sector for the different schemes, i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB), through a set of risk indicators. It should be noted that depending on the characteristics of the pension scheme, risks might not ultimately be borne by the IORPs themselves but by their members and beneficiaries or their sponsors.
The risk dashboard shows for each risk indicator the distribution of the individual reported data over time together with the weighted average, capturing the relative importance of the different entities for the sector. For specific indicators, this information is complemented by relevant data from external sources.
2026 January IORP Risk Dashboard
The reference date for IORP data is Q3-2025 for quarterly indicators and 2024-YE for annual indicators. The cut-off date for indicators based on data from external sources is end-December 2025. The Level (colour) corresponds to the level of risk as of the reference date, the Trend is displayed for the 3 months preceding the reference date and the Outlook is displayed for the 12 months after the reference date. The latter is based on the responses received from 17 national competent authorities (NCAs) and ranked according to the expected change in the materiality of each risk (substantial decrease, decrease, unchanged, increase and substantial increase). More details can be found in the appendix.
Key Observations
Macro risks
Macro-related risks are at a medium level. GDP growth projections (across major geographical regions) for the next four quarters were revised upward to 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (1.3% in the previous quarter), while forecasted inflation remained broadly stable at around 2.2% in the same quarter. Unemployment rates (weighted average across major geographical areas) hovered around 5.3% in the third quarter of 2025, whereas the euro area wage growth decreased reverting back to its declining trend since early 2024, reaching 3.3% in the same quarter (3.6% in the previous quarter). The weighted average of the 10-year swap rates for major currencies moved upwards in the last quarter of 2025, standing at 3.2% (2.9% in the third quarter of 2025). Additional sources of concern are accumulating in the geopolitical landscape, in particular, in Venezuela, Iran and increasingly in Greenland, heightening global uncertainty. Oil prices increased slightly, reflecting expectations of short-term supply disruptions, however, from a longer-term perspective, a potential increase in Venezuelan oil output could exert downward pressure on prices.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: Refinitiv and Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Credit risks
Credit risks remain at a medium level with credit default swaps (CDS) spreads for government and corporate bonds showing a tightening at end-December compared to end-September 2025, despite elevated geopolitical instability. The median exposure of IORPs towards sovereigns (excluding exposures via collective investment undertakings) and corporate bonds as a share of total assets stayed broadly steady at around 14.0% and 1.7%, respectively, in the third quarter of 2025. IORPs’ investments in loans and mortgages are limited, while the household debt-to-income ratio for the euro area continued to decrease, albeit at a slower pace, by around 0.18 p.p. to 82.5% based on the latest available data (Q2-2025). The correlation between the debt-service ratio of non-financial corporations and non-financial corporate bond spreads, aimed at capturing potential credit risk mispricing, remained negative in the second quarter of 2025. In terms of credit quality, the median average CQS of IORPs’ investments was 1.6 in the third quarter of 2025, corresponding to an S&P rating between AA and A. The median exposure of IORPs to below investment grade assets (with a CQS higher than 3) is low (0% of total assets) in the third quarter of 2025, though when considering the weighted average for the sector the figure increases (6.0%), indicating higher exposures for larger IORPs.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and Bloomberg
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and ECB
Source: BIS database for debt service ratios for the private non-financial sector
Market & asset return risks
Market and asset return risks declined to a medium level, with equity market volatility receding but remaining elevated, while bond market volatility remained more contained at end-December compared to end-September. In terms of investments, the median exposure to bonds as a share of total assets (including exposures to collective investment undertakings (CIUs) investing in bonds) remained broadly stable, standing at 54.3% in the third quarter of 2025, while exposure to equity increased to 26.0% in the same quarter (24.9% in the previous quarter). The median exposure of IORPs towards property as a share of total assets is limited (below 1% in the third quarter of 2025), though the figure is higher when considering the weighted average for the sector (6.0%). Residential property prices continued increasing in the first quarter of 2025, while no new data for commercial real estate prices were available at the time of the update. The median exposure of IORPs towards assets denominated in foreign currency appears to be higher for larger IORPs, with the median exposure at 0.6% of total assets and the weighted average at 26.7% in the third quarter of 2025. The median duration of IORPs’ assets is overall stable standing slightly above 5 years (weighted average for the sector around 7 years). In terms of asset return risks, IORPs’ portfolio performance, measured as investment income including unrealised gains and losses as a share of total assets, was positive reaching 6.6% in 2024 (8.0% in 2023).
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and Bloomberg
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and ECB
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Liquidity risks
Liquidity risks are at medium level. The median average of the net market value of IORPs’ derivatives slightly shifted downwards, standing at -0.6% in the third quarter of 2025 (-0.45% in the previous quarter), mainly driven by higher interest rates in the same quarter. Similarly, the weighted average of the same indicator grew more negative, reaching -3.9% in the same quarter (-3.3% in the previous quarter). This indicator and cash holdings tend to mirror each other and therefore, broadly, balance out, in particular for the largest IORPs. The median value of the liquid assets ratio remained largely unchanged at 51.2% in the third quarter of 2025.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Reserve & funding risks
Reserve & funding risks for defined benefit (DB) schemes are at a low level, decreasing from medium, driven by the strengthening of the financial position of IORPs in the third quarter of 2025. This improvement reflects the combined effect of strong investment returns, driven by higher equity prices, and the impact of rising long-term interest rates, which lowered the value of pension liabilities. The median excess of assets over liabilities continued increasing in the third quarter of 2025, standing at 25.3% (22.8% in the previous quarter). Similarly, the median funding ratio, calculated as assets over technical provisions raised to 126.4% (123.7% in the previous quarter).
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat
Concentration risks
Concentration risks are at medium level. IORPs’ median (direct) exposure to banks remained limited below 1% in the third quarter of 2025. Similarly, exposures to other financial institutions (other than banking) stayed below 1%. The weighted averages for both indicators stayed at 5.6% and 5.3%, respectively, in the same quarter, pointing to higher exposures for larger IORPs. IORPs’ exposures to domestic sovereign debt slightly increased to 1.5% of total assets in the third quarter of 2025 (1.4% in the previous quarter), while the weighted average remained largely unchanged at 4.7%. The portfolio concentration per asset class, sector and country, measured by the Herfindahl Hirschman index, remained broadly unchanged compared to the previous quarter. These measures are calculated excluding investments via collective investment undertakings (CIUs), therefore showing high levels of concentration for those IORPs investing mainly via this asset class.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Digitalisation & cyber risks
Digitalisation and cyber risks are at medium level. The materiality of these risks for IORPs, as assessed by supervisors, remained high in the fourth quarter of 2025, amid continued concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions and related uncertainty.
Source: EIOPA’s Pension Bottom-up Survey
APPENDIX
Arrows for the Trend show changes for the 3 months preceding the reference date, while arrows for the Outlook show expected developments for the next 12 months.
Macro risks
This category depicts developments in the macro-economic environment that could impact the IORP sector. This category is based on publicly available data on macro variables that may be used for broader macroprudential monitoring and analysis.
Credit risks
The category assesses the vulnerability of the IORP sector towards credit risks. To achieve this aim, credit-relevant asset class exposures of the IORPs are combined with the relevant risk metrics applicable to these asset classes.
Market & asset return risks
The risk category depicts the main risks IORPs are exposed to on financial markets and the level of asset returns and costs (e.g. administrative, investments and other). For most asset classes these risks are being assessed by analysing both the investment exposure of the IORP sector and an underlying risk metric. The exposures give a picture of the vulnerability of the sector to adverse developments; the risk metric, usually the volatility of the yields of the associated indices, gives a picture of the current level of riskiness.
Liquidity risks
Liquidity risk can be defined as the risk that an institution will not be able to meet its payment obligations timely or without generating excessive cost.
Reserve & funding risks
This category aims to assess the level of the own funds of IORPs and the robustness of its technical provisions. This risk category is only relevant for IORPs executing defined benefit pension schemes (DB).
Concentration risks
This section assesses different concentration risks IORPs are exposed to via their portfolio investments. It depicts various concentration types.
Digitalisation & cyber risks
The category aims at monitoring potential financial stability risks
related to an increased digitalisation, which exposes the IORP sector to
risks from a digital operational resilience perspective (i.e. cyber
security risks).
Due to limited data availability, only environmental risks are currently considered in the category. As more data will be available, social and governance risks should be also considered.↩︎
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