Institutions for occupational retirement
provision (IORPs)
Risk Dashboard
EIOPA-BoS-26-361
July 2026
This risk dashboard, based on individual occupational pensions regulatory reporting, summarises the main risks and vulnerabilities in the European Economic Area (EEA) Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORPs) sector for the different schemes, i.e. defined contributions (DC) and defined benefits (DB), through a set of risk indicators. It should be noted that depending on the characteristics of the pension scheme, risks might not ultimately be borne by the IORPs themselves but by their members and beneficiaries or their sponsors.
The risk dashboard shows for each risk indicator the distribution of the individual reported data over time together with the weighted average, capturing the relative relevance (i.e. size) of the different entities for the sector. For specific indicators, this information is complemented by relevant data from external sources.
2026 July IORP Risk Dashboard
The reference date for IORP data is Q1-2026 for quarterly indicators and 2025-YE for annual indicators. The cut-off date for indicators based on data from external sources is end-June 2026. The Level (colour) reflects the overall risk level as of the reference date, based on the weighted aggregation of the underlying risk indicators. The Trend reflects the change in the risk level compared with the previous quarter and the Outlook is displayed for the 12 months after the reference date. The latter is based on the responses received from 17 national competent authorities (NCAs) and ranked according to the expected change in the materiality of each risk (substantial decrease, decrease, unchanged, increase and substantial increase). More details can be found in the appendix.
Key Observations
Macro risks
Macroeconomic risks are at a medium level, with an increasing trend driven by a deteriorating outlook for GDP and increasing inflation in the second quarter of 2026. Forecasted inflation (across major geographical regions) was revised upward to 2.9% in the second quarter of 2026 (2.5% in the previous quarter), while GDP growth projections (across major geographical areas) decreased to 1.4% for the next four quarters (1.6% in the previous quarter). The weighted average of 10-year swap rates for major currencies slightly declined to 3.2% in the second quarter of 2026, following the upward trend observed since Q1-2021 when the level was 1.4%. Unemployment rates (weighted average across major geographical areas) hovered around 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026, whereas the euro area wage growth decreased to 3.2% in the same quarter (3.4% in the previous quarter), reaching the lowest level since 2021. In early July, heightened geopolitical risks weighed on confidence and economic activity, while potentially adding to inflationary pressures through higher energy and transport costs.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Source: Eurostat, Euro Area Labour Cost Index (LCI)
Source: Refinitiv and Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK
Source: Refinitiv
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Credit risks
Credit risks remain at a medium level, with credit default swaps (CDS) spreads for government and corporate bonds contained at end-June 2026 (compared to end-March 2026), while slightly widening in mid-July. The median exposure of IORPs towards sovereigns and corporate bonds (excluding exposures via collective investment undertakings) as a share of total assets stayed broadly steady at around 14.0% and 2.0%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2026. When considering investments via collective investment undertakings (annual data available for 2025), the median exposure of IORPs towards sovereigns hovered around 24.1%, while for corporate bonds increased to 19.2% (15.8% in the previous quarter), partly driven by changes in the sample composition. IORPs’ investments in loans and mortgages are limited, whereas the household debt-to-income ratio for the euro area showed some stability, after the decreasing trend observed in the recent years (82.4% based on the latest available data (Q4-2025). In terms of credit quality, the median average CQS of IORPs’ investments was 1.7 in the first quarter of 2026 (corresponding to an S&P rating between AA and A). The median exposure of IORPs to below investment grade assets (with a CQS higher than 3) is low (0% of total assets) in the first quarter of 2026, though when considering the weighted average for the sector, the figure rises to (5.8%), indicating higher exposures for larger IORPs. The correlation between the debt-service ratio of non-financial corporations and non-financial corporate bond spreads, aimed at capturing potential credit risk mispricing, remained negative in the fourth quarter of 2025. Going forward, debt financing costs and private credit quality remain under monitoring, as higher borrowing costs could increase default risk for highly leveraged entities, while publicly observed credit spreads may not fully capture emerging risks in private credit markets.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and Bloomberg
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and ECB
Source: BIS database for debt service ratios for the private non-financial sector
Market & asset return risks
Market and asset return risks remain at a high level, with a decreasing trend driven by receding equity and bond market volatility at end-June 2026 (compared to end-March 2026). However, in mid-July geopolitical developments contributed to increased volatility, particularly in the commodity market. In terms of investments, the median exposure to bonds as a share of total assets (including exposures to collective investment undertakings (CIUs)) slightly increased to 54.8% in the first quarter of 2026 (53.3% in the previous quarter), while exposure to equities declined to 25.1% in the same quarter (26.4% in the previous quarter). The median exposure of IORPs to property as a share of total assets remains limited (below 1% in the first quarter of 2026), although the figure is higher when considering the weighted average for the sector (5.8%). Real estate prices decreased to 2.5% in the last quarter of 2025, after the increasing trend observed since end-2024 (5.3% in the previous quarter). The median exposure of IORPs towards assets denominated in foreign currency appears to be higher for larger IORPs, with the median exposure at 1% of total assets and the weighted average at 25.4% in the first quarter of 2026. The median duration of IORPs’ assets is overall stable, standing slightly below 5 years (weighted average for the sector around 7 years). In terms of asset return risks, IORPs’ portfolio performance, measured as investment income including unrealised gains and losses as a share of total assets, was positive standing at 3.2% in 2025, lower than in the previous years (6.7% in 2024). The lower tail of the distribution is negative, reflecting negative asset return developments for some IORPs. Costs, calculated as the sum of administrative, investment and other expenses over total assets remained broadly stable in 2025 (median at 0.5%). Looking ahead, the risk outlook for the next 12 months is increasing amid concerns over a potential broader market correction, elevated valuations and a possible reassessment of risk premia due to renewed geopolitical tensions.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and Bloomberg
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting and ECB
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Liquidity risks
Liquidity risks remain at a medium level, showing signs of stability. The median average of the net market value of IORPs’ derivatives remained negative, standing at -1.0% in the first quarter of 2026 (-1.6% in the previous quarter), amid elevated interest rates. The weighted average of the same indicator showed a more pronounced negative value, at around -4.8% in the same quarter. This indicator and cash holdings tend to mirror each other and therefore, broadly, balance out, in particular for the largest IORPs. The median value of the liquid assets ratio remained largely unchanged at 51.4% in the first quarter of 2026. The median value for the (annual) liquidity indicator measuring inflows (contributions) as a share of outflows (mainly benefit payments) slightly increased to 112.8% in 2025 (108.1% in 2024), while the weighted average for this indicator stayed steady at around 121.0%, pointing to a more comfortable cash flow position for larger IORPs. The indicator on the sustainability of the cash flow position (annual), which compares net premium contributions and benefit payments to liquid assets, is positive for most of the distribution as well as when considering the weighted average for the sector.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Reserve & funding risks
Reserve and funding risks increased to a medium level, with the financial position of Defined Benefit (DB) IORPs remaining robust in the first quarter of 2026. Following the transition of around one third of IORPs in the Netherlands from DB to DC schemes, the new median funding ratio, calculated as assets over technical provisions, was 125.3% in the first quarter of 2026. The indicator was also affected by the negative developments in equity markets. Similarly, the new median excess of assets over liabilities was 23.5% in the same quarter.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat
Concentration risks
Concentration risks are at a medium level. IORPs’ median (direct) exposure to banks remained limited, close to 0% in the first quarter of 2026. Similarly, exposures to other financial institutions (other than banking) close to 0%. The weighted averages for both indicators stayed at 5.7% and 5.0%, respectively, in the same quarter, pointing to higher exposures for larger IORPs. IORPs’ exposures to domestic sovereign debt hovered around 1.2% of total assets in the first quarter of 2026. Similarly, the weighted average of the indicator remained largely unchanged at 4.9%. The portfolio concentration per asset class, sector and country, measured by the Herfindahl Hirschman index, remained broadly unchanged compared to the previous quarter. These measures are calculated excluding investments via collective investment undertakings (CIUs), therefore showing high levels of concentration for those IORPs investing mainly via this asset class.
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Source: EIOPA Occupational Pensions Regulatory Reporting
Digitalisation & cyber risks
Digitalisation and cyber risks are at a medium level. The materiality of these risks for IORPs, as assessed by supervisors, increased in the second quarter of 2026. This increase reflects two main drivers: persistent geopolitical uncertainty and the growing systemic cyber risks associated with frontier AI models. In this regard, supervisors have already warned financial entities of these risks and stressed the need to adapt their cybersecurity capabilities, also in line with DORA requirements.
Source: EIOPA’s Pension Bottom-up Survey
APPENDIX
Arrows for the Trend show changes for the 3 months preceding the reference date, while arrows for the Outlook show expected developments for the next 12 months.
Macro risks
This category depicts developments in the macro-economic environment that could impact the IORP sector. This category is based on publicly available data on macro variables that may be used for broader macroprudential monitoring and analysis.
Credit risks
The category assesses the vulnerability of the IORP sector towards credit risks. To achieve this aim, credit-relevant asset class exposures of the IORPs are combined with the relevant risk metrics applicable to these asset classes.
Market & asset return risks
The risk category depicts the main risks IORPs are exposed to on financial markets and the level of asset returns and costs (e.g. administrative, investments and other). For most asset classes these risks are being assessed by analysing both the investment exposure of the IORP sector and an underlying risk metric. The exposures give a picture of the vulnerability of the sector to adverse developments; the risk metric, usually the volatility of the yields of the associated indices, gives a picture of the current level of riskiness.
Liquidity risks
Liquidity risk can be defined as the risk that an institution will not be able to meet its payment obligations timely or without generating excessive cost.
Reserve & funding risks
This category aims to assess the level of the own funds of IORPs and the robustness of its technical provisions. This risk category is only relevant for IORPs executing defined benefit pension schemes (DB).
Concentration risks
This section assesses different concentration risks IORPs are exposed to via their portfolio investments. It depicts various concentration types.
Digitalisation & cyber risks
The category aims at monitoring potential financial stability risks
related to an increased digitalisation, which exposes the IORP sector to
risks from a digital operational resilience perspective (i.e. cyber
security risks).
Due to limited data availability, only environmental risks are currently considered in the category. As more data will be available, social and governance risks should be also considered.↩︎
Handling instructions for documents with security markings:
EIOPA | Westhafen Tower, Westhafenplatz 1 | 60327 Frankfurt | Germany
Tel: +49 69-951119-20
info@eiopa.europa.eu | https://www.eiopa.europa.eu